A new plan to reflect asteroid threats was presented by NASA

A new plan to reflect asteroid threats was presented by NASA

According to statistics, the chances of you dying from the fall of the asteroid are much lower than the chance of being killed by lightning. From time to time, cosmic cobblestones approach our planet, but in the overwhelming majority of cases everything ends well - asteroids simply fly past several hundred thousand kilometers from Earth. Still, our planet against the background of the vast space expanses is too small a goal for accurate strikes.


Space agencies around the world conduct daily monitoring of near-Earth objects and can pre-warn about possible collisions. Nevertheless, there are cases when a dangerous rapprochement is inevitable, but this becomes known literally a few hours before the eventual event. This year there were at least two similar incidents. The first occurred in April , the second - most recently, in early June. In both cases, the emergence of a cosmic threat turned out to be a real surprise for scientists. Fortunately, both stones were relatively small, about 140 meters in diameter (such asteroids are officially recognized as potentially dangerous).

The aerospace agency NASA does not like this state of affairs, so it worked with some other US federal agencies to develop a strategic plan to repel asteroid threats. The team, called the Interagency Working Group for the Identification and Reduction of Near-Earth Objects (Interagency Working Group for Detecting and Mitigating the Impact of Earth-bound Near-Earth Objects, DAMIEN)presented a 20-page report which describes potentially dangerous asteroids, as well as some possible options for reducing asteroid threats for the next decade.


"The country already has significant scientific, technical and operational capabilities to prevent asteroid threats. Adoption of a special training plan to address potential threats from near-Earth objects will significantly increase the willingness of our country and international partners to respond effectively to these threats, "said NASA planetary defense officer Lindley Johnson.

The new plan is based on a list of strategic objectives presented as early as 2016. One of the described problems that need to be solved is the low efficiency in the detection of near-Earth objects. Two cases have already been mentioned above, when NASA missed potentially dangerous asteroids literally under their noses. This is also attributed to the low efficiency of programs to further monitor these objects.

At the moment, scientists know about the existence of about 8,000 potentially dangerous near-Earth objects, but according to experts, this is only a third of the real number of objects that are actually there and are a potential threat to our planet.

"According to the report of 2017, based on our current technical capabilities, by 2033 only half of the total number of near-Earth objects with a diameter of 140 meters and more will be detected," the new document says.

A newly formed group of technical specialists adequately assessed the existing problem and is currently working on solving issues that will allow reaching a new level of efficiency in the search and tracing of dangerous near-Earth objects.

"If there is a real threat, we will be ready to jointly discuss the available information, develop options for resolving it and pass this data on to people who will make final decisions," Johnson said at a press conference presenting the report.

This is only the first item out of five, which is described in the prepared document. The other two talk about the need to improve the quality of modeling and forecasting threats, and to create a platform for international cooperation in addressing these issues.

There is also a clause here that describes the action plan in the event that the detected object will represent a direct, imminent threat, not a theoretical one. In other words, we are talking about how to reflect asteroids that will take a direct course to Earth. At NASA in this case there are several offers at once. Part of them the agency developed earlier. And not without reason. For example, according to the latest forecasts, with a probability of 1 to 2,700 in 2135, the 492-meter asteroid Bennu could fall to Earth .

As a variant of the response, it is proposed to detonate this asteroid with a nuclear missile. Even if the nuclear charge can not destroy the Bennu, the shock wave, according to scientists, could push the space block off a dangerous trajectory of rapprochement with the Earth. Another option is to use the so-called impact spacecraft.

NASA is going to conduct the first tests of the asteroid deflection method in the 2020s with the launch of the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission. In its framework, it is proposed to send a shock vehicle weighing 500 kilograms to the side of the Didim asteroid. Having completed the first part of the scientific mission to study the near-Earth asteroid "Orpheus", the impact probe will go to its main goal. Moving at a speed of about 6 km / s and hitting the asteroid Didim, the device will slightly shift the direction of the asteroid's movement, as well as its speed, by about 0.4 mm / s. Despite such a modest figure, in a longer-term perspective this will significantly change the trajectory of its movement.

Also in the future, the use of nuclear charges for partial destruction of objects into smaller fragments is proposed to reflect asteroid threats, which will become less dangerous. And among the alternatives there is a proposal for the use of large "gravitational spacecraft", which could use the technology of a gravitational tug and lead objects from a dangerous trajectory.

Further development of preliminary missions of asteroids deviation missions, as well as the construction and testing of systems in secure near-Earth objects will be carried out by the NASA aerospace agency in conjunction with the Administration for National Nuclear Security and the US Department of Defense.

The last part of the NASA report is devoted to a description of possible further actions in the worst case scenario, when it will be impossible to reject or destroy the asteroid threat to the Earth.